The Context
The B.C. NDP has formed the government in British Columbia since 2017 when it narrowly won more seats than the B.C. Liberal Party. The Liberal party had won multiple elections before their defeat. The B.C. NDP were able to win a strong majority in 2020.
The 2024 election produced a majority government for the NDP but it was clearly a precarious one with only 3 seats separating the NDP from the Conservative parties. We would have expected the B.C. NDP to put off going to the polls unless it had to (e.g. it lost its majority status) since governing parties tend to lose political support as they make governing decisions.
Cynically, with the Conservative Party in the midst of in-fighting, Eby has called an early election. While the Conservative Party has been weakened by its internal turmoil, the party may still be able to benefit from happiness with the governing B.C. NDP,
B.C Election Results
(October 19, 2024)
|
Party |
Vote share |
Seats |
|---|---|---|
|
B.C. NDP Party |
44.9% |
47 |
|
Conservative Party |
43.3% |
44 |
|
Green Party |
8.2% |
2 |
The Horserace
The tool below shows the publicly released polls conducted from August 2024 until the present (including the period of the lead up to the 2024 election. Polls at that time showed a very divided electorate. Polls now, however, show voter are very divided.
- The B.C. NDP has fallen off slightly from its share of the vote at the previous election for most of the time since the election.
- The Conservative Party has been the main beneficiary of the NDP decline reaching 47% in some polls in early summer and clearly establishing itself as a potential successor. The summer of turmoil for the Conservative Party weakened its poll standing.
- The Green Party has not managed to grow significantly since the election.
