As the election draws nearer, the polls show that the B.C. Conservative Party has a small lead. Polls by the Pallas (+5 points), Ipsos (+5 points), Research Co (+2) and Liaison (+6) all have the Conservative Party ahead.
The Context
The B.C. NDP has formed the government in British Columbia since 2017 when it narrowly won more seats than the B.C. Liberal Party. The Liberal party had won multiple elections before their defeat. The B.C. NDP were able to win a strong majority in 2020.
The 2024 election produced a majority government for the NDP but it was clearly a precarious one with only 3 seats separating the NDP from the Conservative parties. We would have expected the B.C. NDP to put off going to the polls unless it had to (e.g. it lost its majority status) since governing parties tend to lose political support as they make governing decisions.
Cynically, with the Conservative Party in the midst of in-fighting, Eby has called an early election. While the Conservative Party has been weakened by its internal turmoil, the party may still be able to benefit from unhappiness with the governing B.C. NDP.
B.C Election Results
(October 19, 2024)
|
Party |
Vote share |
Seats |
|---|---|---|
|
B.C. NDP Party |
44.9% |
47 |
|
Conservative Party |
43.3% |
44 |
|
Green Party |
8.2% |
2 |
The Horserace
The tool below shows the publicly released polls conducted from 2024 until the present which provides some context for understanding the evolution of polls in 2025 and 2026. Polls leading up to the 2024 election showed a very divided electorate and this remains true today.
The BC Polling Explorer below uses a simple rolling average to show the trends in party support. Each party is shown separately. Contrast this with the more sophisticated approach used by the tracker at 338Canada.ca. The advantage of this approach is that it makes no judgement of the accuracy of each poll. Those interested can contrast the online and IVR polls or isolate those in 2026.
- The B.C. NDP has fallen off slightly from its share of the vote at the previous election for most of the time since the election.
- The Conservative Party has been the main beneficiary of the NDP decline reaching 47% in some polls in early summer and clearly establishing itself as a potential successor. The summer of turmoil for the Conservative Party weakened its poll standing.
- The Green Party has not managed to grow significantly since the election.
The election campaign has revealed that the B.C. NDP lead in late summer was ephemeral. Recent polls shows a slight BC Conservative Party advantage.
A note on poll methodology
IVR polls during the campaign suggest a wider Conservative Party of BC advantage over the BC NDP compared with online polls.
